THE PETER OBI 2023 CHALLENGE.

THE PETER OBI 2023 CHALLENGE.

In all elections in 2023, particularly the presidential election, individual candidates rather than the parties will be the key factor. Party will still count but not as much as the candidate.

In the presidential election, all things considered, before Peter Obi became a presidential candidate on Labour Party platform, it was to be a straight fight between Atiku Abubakar and Ahmed Bola Tinubu.

But with the dramatic defection of Obi from PDP to Labour Party and his emergence as presidential candidate, in spite of widespread suspicion among the discerning concerning his real intentions (was he really interested in becoming President or galvanizing support for Atiku and possibly becoming his running mate?), the expectations have changed, also dramatically.

Now that the discerning believe that Obi is truly in the 2023 presidential race - because of Atiku's choice of Ifeanyi Okowa as his running mate and because of the near-magical support that Obi's candidacy is receiving from across Nigeria, all has changed.

Today, it is clear that 2023 presidential election is between Tinubu and Obi. Atiku is effectively out of it, the rest of the candidates not likely to alter the scenario - even when the real campaign begins.

In fact, it is far more likely that many candidates of the smaller parties will not bother campaigning but will simply step down for either Tinubu or Obi.

Between Tinubu or Obi, who is likely to emerge winner in 2023 and President Buhari's successor? If election held today, Obi undoubtedly. 

But eight months to go is a long time in electioneering campaign, and anything can happen before the E-Day in February 2023.

Tinubu, if his general election campaign is conducted classically, without religious sentiments and thuggery, can upturn Obi's early lead in public perception. And he could quite possibly emerge victorious. 

A lot of hard work for both candidates, particularly Tinubu. But head or tail, 2023 promises to be an interesting presidential election year in which the incumbent party of the Federal Government of Nigeria (APC) is facing real threat from a very small party that many people were not quite sure if it still existed until Obi defected to it very recently.

Dr Chinedu Jideofo-Ogbuagu

Campaign Strategist.

Contact: 

09052910866, 07068400040.

Dated: 2nd July 2022.